Feed on Posts or Comments 31 July 2010

2008 Election & Conservatives & Culture wars Richard Falknor on 15 Jul 2008 09:06 pm

Is Senator Obama Running a Better “Ground War”?

This Monday we warned here against ignoring senator Obama’s appeal as a “regenerative healer.”

Today American Thinker’s Rick Moran here tells us “Obama’s ‘Ground Game’ is to Marvel At” while veteran Republican wired activist here Patrick Ruffini in The Next Right asks “Is Obama Investing Massively in Field Organizing?”

Writes Moran:

To date, the largest and most successful “ground game” [Ground War] in the history of electoral politics was the Bush-Rove operation in 2004. Nearly 3 million volunteers along with hundreds of paid staffers were responsible for Bush’s victory.

What is a “ground game?” It is organizing at the lowest level possible - ideally at the precinct level - so that you can identify your supporters and potential supporters and on election day, get them to the polls. It takes motivated volunteers to carry through with their assignments as well as a huge database to keep track of it all.

Well, according to 538, the ground game that Obama is mounting will make the Bush-Rove efforts look like amateur hour . . . .”

Here is Ruffini’s take:

“Over the last few days, we’ve been tracking the Obama Money Crunch . The fact that they are toning down their TV buy is suggestive of weak fundraising. Yet, even in the face of what seems to be less than overwhelming fundraising, they are doing something very smart: trying to crush McCain in the cheaper and arguably more cost-effective realm of field organizing.

MyDD (so, yes, consider the source) runs down what it says are a series of substantive accomplishments of the Obama field team: 10 times as many staffers in Missouri than McCain, 6 offices in deep red Indiana vs. 0 for McCain, 150 staffers in Michigan.

I am in a My.BarackObama.com group for South Bend, Indiana (which I joined during the primary) and can confirm that paid Obama organizer is actively working with the group.

This is pretty smart, and another example of Obama ‘08 being the spiritual successor to Bush-Cheney ‘04.

As for TV, Ruffini declares:

“Clearly, a lot of money is wasted on TV. When 60 to 80 percent of a campaign’s budget is going to one thing, no matter what that one thing is, something is clearly out of whack. And I’d say the same if the one thing were the Internet, or grassroots, or finance.

So what if you could shift some of those wasted resources over into a cheaper realm where it is possible to obtain a massive tactical advantage by simply spending money smarter than your opponent?

The law of diminishing returns says that the first million that you spend should get you more bang for the buck than the next million. We are long past the point of diminishing returns on TV. Why not diversify your budget and go after the 2- and 3-to-1 advantages in smaller areas with steeper growth curves? That’s what Obama seems to be doing with his shrunken budget.”

Moran importantly cautions: “Here’s the catch; you can have a ground game like this and still lose if you’ve got a lousy candidate. And as long as Obama continues his flip flopping and gaffes, McCain will remain competitive.”

But the ground war depends on volunteers. The Arizona senator is unlikely to have the eager legions of Bush-Cheney 2004 because of his almost studied efforts to offend the conservative base. This week’s mega-pander here at La Raza in San Diego will only exacerbate senator McCain’s problem with that base. Senator Obama’s core –the source of volunteers– may well be more moved by his larger-than-life persona than by his tactical maneuvering on positions. Pointing to senator Obama’s “flip-flops” might seem the kind of divisive “inside baseball” from which these Obama faithful seek a change - - - although highlighting such inconsistencies could be quite effective among voters at large. The core, however, awaiting here “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal” are unlikely to be moved by what they see as quibbling. Our sense is that senator Obama’s core will continue to have substantial energy in ways that senator McCain’s may not.

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