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2012 Election Richard Falknor on 05 Nov 2012 11:00 am

UPDATED! Ben Domenech’s ‘Undertow Election’ Bodes Ill for President

UPDATE NOVEMBER 5! John Fund warns (NRO) “As Ohio Counts, So Waits the Nation” – – “Cincinnati, Ohio-If the presidential election goes into ‘overtime’ — if no winner is known on Wednesday morning after the election — the culprits may be procrastinating absentee voters in Ohio. If it goes on beyond that with no decision, it may be due to lawyers from both parties’ fighting trench warfare over individual ballots in a bloody recount. It could easily happen in other states, but the danger of an ‘overtime’ election is perhaps greatest in Ohio.”

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We are not pollster junkies, nor even would-be pollster junkies, but we found Ben Domenech’s analysisObama’s Failure With Whites, Independents Will Sink Him” (RealClearPolitics) yesterday (click here) both insightful and well worth considering – –

“I believe this election has turned, as I argued last week, into an undertow election. Romney’s support has remained remarkably consistent since his selection of Paul Ryan healed any remaining rift with the conservative base. There is no great wave of support rising up from the previously undecided to elevate Romney to a definitive win. However, Obama’s base of support has shown signs of being less engaged, less active, and less eager to vote. All indications are that turnout is going to lag the heights of 2008, falling closer to the levels of 1996 and 2000 – a distinct advantage for the Republican, no matter the election. It is also looking like turnout will break the string of decreasingly white electorates, again a bad sign for the president. As Josh Kraushaar points out, Team Obama may have the better ground game – but they also may have made a significant error in deciding which states could function as a firewall against Romney’s appeals:

‘The Obama turnout machine isn’t quite as valuable in the more homogeneous battleground states—Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire—that make up the president’s firewall. These states have older, whiter electorates. The name of the game for Democrats here is persuasion as much as mobilization. In Ohio, Obama’s campaign strategy is clear: making Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout a central part of the bid to hold onto enough working-class whites to win the state. But it’s also becoming clear that it’s not just Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin that are looking winnable for Romney—it’s the entire swath of competitive Midwestern and Rust Belt states that share demographic similarities, and where Republicans made significant gains during the 2010 midterms. Obama holds a small lead in Ohio thanks to the auto bailout, but the issues driving the electorate in neighboring states are more favorable to Republicans.

Team Obama may have successfully made Romney toxic in Ohio, and indeed, my electoral map below shows him failing to win there, but other Midwestern states have not experienced that same level of thermonuclear ad attack, and there the ground may prove more fertile.” (Highlighting Forum’s.)

Don’t fail to read all of Domenech’s Real Clear Politics post here.

The Barone View

Today Transom editor Domenech adds – –

“As many have noticed, I have Wisconsin as the deciding state on the map – a far closer race than Michael Barone predicts. http://vlt.tc/jwm  I’m rather stunned by how far out on the limb Barone’s gone with this, but no one knows this part of the country more than he does, and even if he’s wrong, I can’t see him being wrong by that much. Here’s a map of my prediction. http://vlt.tc/joz  And here’s a map of Barone’s. http://vlt.tc/ju6” (Highlighting Forum’s.)

This is substantial food for thought on election eve!

 

 

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